MRBI Poll – Consequences – + Dublin Northwest

MRBI Poll in Irish Times

1000 Voters at 100 sampling points – all numbers +/- 3%

Core Vote –

Fianna Fail 16% (-1)
Fine Gael 21% (-3)
Labour 22% (+5)
SF 8% (+1)
Green 3 (+1)
Independent 7% (-1)
Undecided 23% (+1)

Adjusted

Fianna Fail 17% (-5)
Fine Gael 28% (-4)
Labour 32% (+8)
SF 9% (+1)
Green 3
Independent 11%

Labour at 39% in Dublin is bigger than FF + FG.

12% satisfied with government and 83% dissatisfied

Satisfaction

Cowen 18% (-8)
Kenny 24% (-7)
Gilmore 46%
Gormley 21% (-3%)
Adams 31%

Conclusions – Labour are on a phenomenal roll. I have been feeling this for some time and have told the FG group on Dublin City Council.

Gilmore has been getting away with soft core opposition with nobody kicking his head off. There are many targets – No indication of how he will fund €18 billion borrowing this year. No comment on the Croke Park deal and how it will impede public service reform. No comment on how he will get the economy going again. No comment on his opposition to the bank guarantee of September 2008. No comment on what public sector reforms are necessary or desirable. No comment on lean studies in contrast to the random natural wastage method of reducing public sector numbers. No comment on pensions into the future all across the economy – how will they be funded?

Will he leave the euro? Will he arrange a write-off off some of the first time buyers’ negative equity?

Will he reintroduce a real freedom of information act?

How exactly will Labour reform the Heath Service?

With regard to Fine Gael – The party must be more forward gazing and hopeful where possible

Fine Gael must abolish the HSE and reconfigure democratic accountability in the Health Service. Fine Gael must push Leo Varadkar out to push the jobs agenda. Richard Bruton must keep updating the bank policy and prepare for government.

Denis Naughton should be given a bigger profile – he is good. LucyLoo must be encouraged to get a higher profile for her European agenda to save the country. Coveney must say more on jobs – always state that job totals are average estimates. NEVER get talked down by any of the FF Mups or Muppettes.

Bring O’Dowd into the scrum and let him hit off Labour and FF

Dublin is the cockpit but this poll shows Labour rolling across the country. So get Mairead McGuinness batting for the competent people of Ireland. Fine Gael need a hit squad to deal with Dublin Problems.

The future is where it is at now. Savage Fianna Fail’s incompetence and parse Labour into exposure. The fall in the Red C poll mirrors what has been seen in the MRBI latest so the FG numbers are probably real.

As for Dublin Northwest, I will not duck the issue.

The last two polls plus the evidence from the local elections indicate that Labour are odds on now to get two seats in this constituency especially if John Lyons is the second candidate beside long time TD Roisin Shortall.

Dessie Ellis is full time on the ground and works hard. He is likely to get about 15%. The question is what will Fianna Fail poll. I believe that this week FF will poll about 24% between two candidates. That will give them one seat. This area is very conservative so with Noel Ahern and Pat Carey in situ, one of them will take a seat. Depending on which is eliminated, Dessie Ellis will benefit more from leakage from Pat Carey than from Noel Ahern. The third seat will be between the Dessie Ellis, Lyons and Fine Gael and will depend on the distribution of Labour votes between the two candidates and the order of eliminations with Fianna Fail. If Fine Gael gets 15% or above,the seat will be won. 14% makes it impossible to call because Labour is likely to be on around the mid to high 30%s.

Result if now (1) Shortall (2) Carey (3) Ellis or Tormey or Lyons