MRBI Poll in Dublin

Fianna Fail 11%

Fine Gael 16%

Labour 30%

Sinn Fein 8%

Green 3%

Independents 8%

The Fine Gael vote has gone down severely in working class areas. Labour is strongest in working class areas and among the best off voters Labour gets the highest vote. Fine Gael is highest in middle class areas. Fianna Fail is below the level of the last local elections. Sinn Fein voters are heavily concentrated in C2 and DE social groups.

The relevance of these findings will vary depending on the demographic of an individual constituency. These figures indicate trouble for Fianna Fail all across the Dublin area and for Fine Gael in areas with large CE groups like Dublin South Central, Dublin South West, Dublin Northwest, Dublin Central (Paschal Donohoe will be ok).

In northwest, it is likely that Labour will get two seats with the third seat impossible to call at this point because I find it hard to believe that Minister Carey and former minister Noel Ahern are not on about 20% between them. There might be just a straight switch from FF to Labour here with the rejectorate again giving me a “take a hike” slip. If I could get 16% in the election, I would however probably limp in to third place on transfers if you calculate the likely numbers. The objective would be to stay ahead of the second labour candidate if possible. The possibility of a zero for Fianna Fail has appeared out of the polling mists. So these are interesting and volatile political times.