No default just slow painful negotiation to restructure and write off some of the nationalised bank debt while closing the national fiscal gap. Simple really – just bottle required.

It is in the national interest of Germany, France and the UK in particular that Ireland does not default on bank debt because the consequences would be significant in these countries but catastrophic here. The ECB has lent Irish banks €150 billion at 1 to 1.5% in emergency loans. Could you imagine the consequences of reneging on this debt or a significant proportion of it? We need national patience in the new government. This is the great breaking point in the European project. I think the whole project will survive. But it may mean that the Christian Democrats in Germany may have to be beaten and Angela Merkel out of office.