I believe that Fine Gael’s bank policy and recovery jobs policy (Richard Bruton’s website) is clearly better worked out, safer, realistic and more likely to work. I would have acted to guarantee BoI and AIB on 30 september 2008 had I been forced to make the choice at that time and in those circumstances. I thought that Labour was simply wrong then and Nothing has changed my mind. Just read Professor Honohan’s report and make up yopur own mind.

However, Fine Gael should not have fallen in with Fianna Fail so comprehensively at the time. My dog “Fluffy” would have objected to lying down with Anglo Irish Bank. Systemic? No, Professor Honohan, No! Fine Gael’s subsequent policy position is light years ahead of Labour and Fianna Fail. Matt Cooper addresses a numerical conundrum for those who have particular confidence in Noonan, Bruton, Varadkar, Coveney, O’Dowd and Hogan in comparison to Joan and company. I have confidence in Pat Rabbitte and Ruairi Quinn who are economically literate.

The realisation among the public that Brian Lenihan has been a disaster in Finance is slowly becoming apparent. Gormley’s call for a national government is laughable. Call and election John and see if you beat the odds! Gormley’s problems will be Ruairi Quinn, LucyLoo, Clever Andrews and Kevin Humphries. The Incinerator will be built and the issue forgotten about in 18 months. John you will be gored by a bulling electorate.

Matt Cooper’s musings in the Irish Examiner on the Enda Kenny issue are interesting. Enda has worked magnificently for years and does not deserve the shredding he got recently in the Sunday Independent. But as a putative Taoiseach, there is a public interest in Enda that transends the interests of Fine Gael. I hear it everywhere I go. It is the same refrain for years only gathering pace. Can Mark Mortell change the game? This is a very serious issue for Ireland.

We need to grow the economy to close the budget deficit. The national indigenous economy is still contracting or at best standing still. Bruton, Varadkar and Rabbitte – may be able to get things going. I hope so. More to come.

Permanent TSB has a €35 billion residential mortgage loan book. Property prices have fallen to 50% from 2006/7 peak and are back at 2001 levels. 2009 impaired loans €828 million. Impaired loan book provision is 1.2% which is better than the 0.3% up to December 2008 but still ridiculous.

Non-performing loans – > €4 billion (up 59% in one year)
Bad debt provision was up to €477 million which is only 58% of the total
listed. This is less than 12% of the total non-performing loans of €4
billion.

Credit Unions have to set aside a provision of 20% default for all loans
that have to be renegotiated. ( Financial Regulator)

In Permanent TSB there are €10 billion of renegotiated loans which would require a set aside of €2 billion if the same criteria were applied as apply to Credit Unions and Quinn.

In the next two years, PTSB will need an extra €624 million over what they have provisioned already. Under IIRS accounting standards they should be made provide for this now.

ILP expended its loan book from €7.5 billion in 2000 to €40 billion by
2008. ILP has had to go to the ECB for €10 billion to fund its loan book to 25%. In 2009, the number of mortgages in arrears of 90 days or more rose from 3,700 to 7,200 —- 3.9% of the mortgage book. 22% of its Irish mortgage portfolio is in negative equity. €11 billion are tracker mortgages tied to the ECB rate and are losing money
at the moment.

If PTSB were to provision for 50% of non-performing loans it would have
lost €2 billion last year in banking. If the Financial Regulator was to demand 20% provision on all renegotiated loans then the losses last year would have been about €4 billion and the whole group would have been insolvent to €2 billion.
Ireland’s NAMA inclusive sovereign debt is about €150 billion and is worse than Greece per capita.

Is there a need for an inquiry? Yes

Why? Because the investigations by the Gardai and the Director of Corporate Affairs have, to date, not yielded evidence of wrong doing or otherwise in open court so that the public are still left in the penumbra relative darkness of speculation instead of proven fact. Yet the tax payer has lost € billions.

What is in the public arena? Questionable transfers of deposits involving Anglo Irish Bank, Irish Nationwide and also Irish Life and Permanent.

Property based lending policies that were reckless and incompetent leading to a banking failure requiring extraordinary state intervention.

Pathetic corporate governance in some financial institutions.

Failure of competence in the Financial Regulator.

Failure of competence at the Department of Finance.

Failure of political leadership and competence in policy terms involving successive Ministers for Finance and the current and former Taoiseach.

An explanation as to why the three major political parties had manifestos at the last election which indicated that they did not recognise the financial graffiti on the economic wall.

An All-Party Dail Committee of Enquiry into the banking collapse should be set up. Sessions must be open to the public and broadcast. If there is a need for legislation or a referendum to allow this to function effectively, then lets have both of these first.

Problem – To try to minimise the likelihood of this Enquiry interfering with any decision to prosecute taken by the Director of Public Prosecutions or by the Director of Corporate Affairs.

Secrecy is not an appropriate condition in this case. There are no victims of intimate crime as in the paedophilia enquiry. The world bond market is not influenced by the sight of the captains and the kings being brought before the public to account for their actions, particularly when the outcome will impose good governance on the banks and consequently reduce the financial risk to foreign buyers of Irish debt.

A Dail Committee will reassert the primacy of the legislature and public representatives acting in the voters’ interests.

We Irish get the politicians we deserve. We vote them in. Fianna Fail has thus far avoided the fate of the Canadian Conservative Party or the Italian Christian Democrats even thought they richly deserve it. I will be more than surprised if it happens here because we are a deeply conservative society where self delusion, myth and shibboleth are ingrained.